Better In Than Out?

By Charlie Cook, NationalJournal.com
© National Journal Group Inc.
Tuesday, April 11, 2006

The continuing gloomy numbers in national polls have raised the question of whether President Bush's problems, and by extension, his party's, have not only jelled but have hardened.

	Only 88 percent of Republicans would like to see the GOP retain control of Congress, providing yet another sign of waning enthusiasm among the Republican rank and file.

In the latest Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll of 1,000 adults nationwide, Bush's approval was at 37 percent, down from 40 percent in late February [PDF]; his disapproval rating was 56 percent, up two points from that last poll. The more important finding in the poll conducted April 6-9 (margin of error +/-3.1 percent) was that only 18 percent strongly approved of the job Bush is doing, while 43 percent strongly disapproved.

In the new ABC News/Washington Post poll (conducted April 6-9, surveyed 1,027 adults, margin of error +/-3 percent), Bush's job approval was at 38 percent compared to a 60 percent disapproval rating. But while 20 percent strongly approved, 47 percent strongly disapproved. In the April 3-5 Associated Press/Ipsos poll of 1,003 adults (margin of error +/- 3.1 percent) that gave Bush job ratings of 36-percent approval to 62-percent disapproval, the strong approval was just at 18 percent while strong disapproval registered at 42 percent.

So in the last three polls that measured the intensity of job approval, the president's strong approval ranged from 18 percent to 20 percent but his strong disapproval ranged from 42 percent to 47 percent.

This trend continued when voters were asked about specific issues. For instance, even in the face of a strong economy over the last three months, the AP/Ipsos poll showed that only 39 percent approve of Bush's handling of the economy and 59 percent disapprove. On handling "domestic issues like health care, education and the environment," 37 percent approve of Bush and 60 percent disapprove. Just 37 percent approve of his handling of "the relief effort for victims of Hurricane Katrina," while 59 percent disapprove. On "foreign policy issues and the war on terrorism," the president's approval/disapproval split was 40/58. On the situation in Iraq, it was 35/63.

There comes a point for some unfortunate presidents when the American people begin to hit the mute button; they just stop listening. Or to put it differently, when the public turns strongly against an elected official on an issue, they begin to turn on that official on everything. In this case, Iraq has become a ball and chain for President Bush, weighing him down on every issue. The separation between his weakest issue, Iraq, and his strongest, terrorism, is just five points.

The generic ballot test remains very steady. In the Cook/RT Strategies poll, Democrats have a 10-point advantage among adults (46 percent to 36 percent) and registered voters (47 percent to 37 percent). While part of the Democratic advantage is due to their 10-point lead among independent voters, another reason is that while 94 percent of Democratic voters would like to see their party in control of Congress after the next election, only 88 percent of Republicans would like to see the GOP retain control, providing yet another sign of waning enthusiasm among the Republican rank and file.

Apart from the fact that the election is 210 days away, the one bright light for the GOP is that Democrats in Congress are seen as no better than Republicans. Democratic pollster Thom Riehle and Republican Lance Tarrance, the two partners in RT Strategies that conducted the Cook Political Report poll, split their sample and asked half whether they approve or disapprove of the job Democrats in Congress are doing. The other half were asked about Republicans. Republicans had an approval rating of 38 percent and a disapproval score of 51 percent. Democrats had very similar numbers, with an approval rating of 38 percent compared to a 47 percent disapproval score. The bad news for the GOP is that midterm elections are rarely about the "out" party, they are usually a referendum on the "in" party.

The one really intriguing nugget of data in the new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll has to do with 2008. Thus far, when Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., have been matched up in hypothetical ballot tests, McCain has won each easily. Now that McCain has embarked on a grand repositioning of himself in the political marketplace, moving from the independent, moderate maverick to a mainstream Republican team player, it raises the questions of what he gains, what he loses, and what is the net effect.

While the truth is that on most important, substantive issues, as opposed to process issues (e.g. campaign finance reform), McCain's voting record has always been very conservative and there is no shift. Indeed, his strong support of the war in Iraq has not wavered one bit. On measures of style, rhetoric and political positioning (e.g., going to Rev. Jerry Falwell's Liberty University to give the commencement address), though, McCain is clearly moving. As McCain begins to solidify himself on the right, does he sacrifice support in the middle?

It is far too soon to say, but comparing the late February Cook Political Report/RT Strategies numbers to the newest ones, McCain has gone from a 10-point, 47 percent to 37 percent advantage, to a five-point, 44 percent to 39 percent lead. Among registered voters, McCain's advantage has had a smaller drop from a 12-point margin (48 percent to 36 percent) in February to a 9-point margin (46 percent to 37 percent).

Numbers taken from one poll should not be seized upon as a trend but as something to watch in future polls. It will take far more data from a variety of pollsters to confirm that a trend really has begun, but it's worth following.