2006 Senate Race Rankings
© National Journal Group Inc.
Monday, Nov. 6, 2006
More 2006 Race Rankings:
Governor Races • House Races
Hotline Editor in Chief Chuck Todd also writes "On The Trail." Seats are ranked by likelihood to switch party control (i.e., the top-ranked race is the seat most likely to flip). Hotline State Editor Quinn McCord assisted in these rankings. Send comments here.
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We're not going to offer a range this week, but an either-or. Either the GOP turnout machine works and the party holds its losses to a net three seats... or it doesn't, the environment kicks in and Democrats win every race in the top 10 (or every race but one), giving them a net seven seats. For some reason, we don't believe there will be an in-between result.
The Top 20
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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1
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PENNSYLVANIA
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Rick Santorum (R)
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Last Ranking: 1
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We ran our first poll on this race in February 2005 and have published over 50 since then. Casey's lead over Santorum has varied between 23 points and a single point. Yet he has always led.
Tip Sheet
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2
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OHIO
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Mike DeWine (R)
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Last Ranking: 2
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If Sherrod Brown wins this race, he'll have a huge target on his back before he even gets sworn in. He'll spend the next six years seeking to avoid the fate of the GOP Senate class of '80, which was largely wiped out in ’86.
Tip Sheet
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3
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RHODE ISLAND
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Lincoln Chafee (R)
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Last Ranking: 3
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Credit Whitehouse for staying on message. He has produced a plethora of ads that all say basically the same thing: Chafee=Republican=Bush. And it seems to be working. Chafee's final plea to voters asking them not to punish him for Bush is a "Hail Mary" play.
Tip Sheet
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4
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VIRGINIA
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George Allen (R)
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Last Ranking: 6
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Sure, most candidates would love to have a time machine at their disposal, but these guys could really use one. If only Allen could replay the last three months of his life, this might not even be a targeted race. As for Webb, he'd probably be the clear front-runner at this point if not for that one Washingtonian article he penned back in '79.
Tip Sheet
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5
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MONTANA
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Conrad Burns (R)
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Last Ranking: 4
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At the end of the day, this is still a state which twice gave 58 percent of its vote to George W. Bush. That cushion of extra GOP voters has always loomed as a potential path for an "upset" Burns victory unavailable to the incumbents ranked above.
Tip Sheet
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6
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MISSOURI
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Jim Talent (R)
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Last Ranking: 5
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This is perhaps the only Senate race in which there would be nothing shocking about seeing either candidate win. Talent seems to be holding up better than the other embattled GOP incumbents.
Tip Sheet
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7
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MARYLAND
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Open Seat (D)
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Last Ranking: 9
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If Ehrlich and Steele's final vote tallies closely track each other county by county, that will indicate significant party-line voting -- which means both men will likely lose. Steele probably can't win unless Ehrlich does, and even then, he'll need all those Prince George's County votes he's been harvesting to offset the loss of many Ehrlich/Cardin voters.
Tip Sheet
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8
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ARIZONA
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Jon Kyl (R)
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Last Ranking: 10
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As strong a campaign as he's run, Kyl still can't seem to break 50 percent in any poll. Arizona is probably less susceptible to a wave this year than some of the East Coast states, but still, the potential exists for this to be a surprisingly tight contest come election night.
Tip Sheet
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9
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NEW JERSEY
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Robert Menendez (D)
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Last Ranking: 8
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Kean has pounded Menendez relentlessly on ethics and succeeded in driving up both candidates' unfavorable ratings without substantially moving the head-to-head polling numbers.
Tip Sheet
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10
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TENNESSEE
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Open Seat (R)
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Last Ranking: 7
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Tennessee's polling may be the most confusing in the nation. Our gut says Ford has had a rough couple of weeks, yet there are still legitimate turnout models showing him in the lead.
Tip Sheet
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11
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MICHIGAN
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Debbie Stabenow (D)
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Last Ranking: 11
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Momentum seems to be with Bouchard. But barring last-minute scandals, how do you close a double-digit gap in just a couple of weeks?
Tip Sheet
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12
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MINNESOTA
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Open Seat (D)
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Last Ranking: 12
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Mark Kennedy's aggressiveness may be paying off, but it's probably too little too late. We've said it before: this race is a textbook example of why the opposing party has to define an unknown statewide candidate before she can define herself.
Tip Sheet
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13
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WASHINGTON
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Maria Cantwell (D)
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Last Ranking: 13
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Looks like Dino Rossi was smart to avoid running this year, and he's well positioned to run for governor again in 2008. McGavick did many things right in his campaign. But even successful businessmen know there are sometimes forces beyond one's control that can disrupt the best-laid plans.
Tip Sheet
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14
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NEBRASKA
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Ben Nelson (D)
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Last Ranking: 14
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Ricketts' new ads sound a lot like Sheldon Whitehouse's, emphasizing the importance of which party controls the Senate. Indeed, that argument could bring down Nelson someday if he happens to run in a Dem-unfriendly cycle. But 2006 probably isn't that year.
Tip Sheet
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15
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NEVADA
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John Ensign (R)
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Last Ranking: 15
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If Jack Carter had lived in the state a few years longer and entered the race a few months earlier, this race could have been in single digits by now.
Tip Sheet
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16
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WEST VIRGINIA
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Robert Byrd (D)
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Last Ranking: 16
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Byrd's lowest re-election victory was 65 percent in 1988 against nominal opposition. But even Byrd probably can't hope for a 2-1 victory over a multi-millionaire self-funder like John Raese. Or can he?
Tip Sheet
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17
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VERMONT
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Open Seat (I)
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Last Ranking: 17
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Future GOP Senate candidates elsewhere take heart: You no longer have to link your Democratic opponents only to Hillary Clinton and Ted Kennedy. You'll soon get to add "Socialist Bernie Sanders" to the list.
Tip Sheet
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18
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FLORIDA
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Bill Nelson (D)
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Last Ranking: 18
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Does Harris get over or under 40 percent? Now taking bets...
Tip Sheet
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19
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CONNECTICUT
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Joe Lieberman (I)
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Last Ranking: 19
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In a year where many Democrats may win in unlikely places, how bad will Lamont feel if he can't win as the Democratic nominee in a blue state with no real GOP opposition?
Tip Sheet
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20
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HAWAII
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Daniel Akaka (D)
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Last Ranking: 20
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Somewhere, Lamar Alexander is cursing his missed opportunity to lead off the Senate roll call votes.
Tip Sheet
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The Rest
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Rank
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State
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Incumbent/Party
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Previous
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22
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NEW YORK
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Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)
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Last Ranking: 22
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23
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UTAH
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Orrin Hatch (R)
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Last Ranking: 23
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24
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TEXAS
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Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)
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Last Ranking: 24
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25
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DELAWARE
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Thomas Carper (D)
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Last Ranking: 25
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27
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CALIFORNIA
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Dianne Feinstein (D)
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Last Ranking: 27
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28
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MAINE
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Olympia Snowe (R)
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Last Ranking: 28
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29
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WYOMING
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Craig Thomas (R)
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Last Ranking: 29
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33
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INDIANA
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Richard Lugar (R)
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Last Ranking: 33
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